Despite public displays of solidarity between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during recent meetings in Beijing, shifting global energy dynamics are placing new strains on the Sino-Russian relationship. Analysts say the ongoing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping energy markets and forcing both countries to reconsider long-standing assumptions about their strategic partnership.
For years, many observers argued that China held overwhelming leverage over Russia in energy negotiations, particularly after Western sanctions reduced Moscow’s access to European markets. Under that view, Beijing functioned as a dominant buyer with significant bargaining power over Russian oil and gas exports.
However, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have complicated that picture. The maritime instability has tightened global energy supplies and increased the strategic importance of alternative exporters and transport routes. According to figures cited by energy analysts, global oil inventories have fallen sharply since the start of the conflict, with the International Energy Agency reportedly tracking a drawdown of hundreds of millions of barrels from global stockpiles.
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China itself has also seen pressure on domestic reserves. Analysts noted that the country’s above-ground crude inventories recently recorded their first decline in several months, highlighting growing concerns over supply security.
At the same time, China reduced its overall oil imports in April as part of broader efforts to limit economic exposure to rising energy costs. Imports of Russian crude reportedly fell month-on-month, although higher global benchmark prices increased the total value of those shipments. That dynamic has helped sustain Russian export revenues despite lower volumes.
Attention has also focused on the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project, which would significantly expand Russian gas exports to China. Russian officials have indicated that some core technical parameters have been agreed upon, but negotiations over pricing structures and ownership stakes remain unresolved. Chinese analysts cited in recent discussions suggest Moscow is seeking to accelerate negotiations in order to secure the project amid tightening global gas supplies.
The broader natural gas market has also been affected by the regional conflict. Energy experts warn that disruptions linked to Iran and Gulf shipping routes could remove a substantial share of expected global LNG supply growth over the coming years, contributing to tighter markets well into the late 2020s.
In response, China appears to be diversifying its supply options. Reports indicate that Chinese buyers have resumed spot purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas from facilities including Sabine Pass LNG Terminal and Plaquemines LNG despite broader geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington. Analysts describe the move as a pragmatic effort to reduce overreliance on any single supplier.
Together, these developments suggest that while China and Russia continue to present a united diplomatic front, underlying energy negotiations are becoming increasingly shaped by volatility in global markets and shifting strategic priorities.