West Africa has become the world’s terrorism hotspot, creating a rift among European governments on how to respond. While some nations facing increased migration flows advocate for maintaining communication with the region’s military juntas, others are reconsidering their strategy in light of the escalating conflict.
In the heart of the Sahel, jihadis launched a bold attack in Mali’s capital on 17 September, killing dozens of students at a police training academy, storming the airport, and setting the presidential jet on fire. This assault—one of the most audacious in the region since 2016—underscored the growing threat that jihadist groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State pose, not only in rural areas but also in urban centers. These groups have killed thousands and displaced millions in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, with diplomats warning that large areas under jihadist control could soon become training grounds for more large-scale attacks on major cities and neighboring states.
The conflict, overshadowed by wars in Ukraine and Sudan, has been a key driver behind a sharp rise in migration from the Sahel to Europe. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the number of migrants traveling via West African coastal nations to Spain’s Canary Islands has surged. In the first half of 2024, 17,300 migrants from Sahel countries such as Burkina Faso and Niger arrived in Europe—a 62% increase from the previous year. This rise in migration has coincided with the rise of far-right, anti-immigrant parties in Europe and tighter border policies across the EU.
The three Sahel countries, together amounting to over 60 million people, have all had popular coups overthrowing pro-French governments.
They have all seized national resources that were previously exported to Europe and intend to use them instead for domestic development. pic.twitter.com/bAkAECrf9O
— Orikron 🇵🇹 (@orikron) July 31, 2023
The U.S. Exits Niger’s Key Military Base
Amidst this regional chaos, international alliances in the fight against terrorism are shifting. This week, the United States withdrew from Niger’s Air Base 201, which had only been fully operational for five years and cost over $100 million. This marked the end of a long-standing partnership between the U.S. and Niger in the battle against extremism. Air Base 201, along with Air Base 101, served as critical hubs for U.S. drone operations, conducting surveillance and counterterrorism missions against groups like Boko Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Islamic State in the Grand Sahara (ISGS).
However, Niger’s military coup in July 2023, which replaced its democratically elected president with General Abdourahamane Tchiani, dramatically altered the country’s relationship with the West. The new junta, following in the footsteps of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, shifted its allegiance towards Russia. Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, have filled the void left by departing U.S. troops, signaling a broader regional trend. In recent months, anti-Western protests have swept the streets of Niger’s capital, demanding the departure of U.S. forces. In response, both the U.S. and France have scaled back their military presence and humanitarian aid, while the European Union and neighboring Nigeria have imposed economic sanctions on the country.
This power shift highlights frustrations with Western interventions, which many see as having failed to adequately curb jihadist violence. As Russia strengthens its influence, other global powers, including China, may also expand their presence in Niger, drawn by the country’s valuable natural resources and strategic location.
The Path Ahead: Rising Threats and Fragile Governments
The rise of jihadist violence has not only spurred migration but also fueled military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These juntas, replacing Western-backed governments, have sought Russian military support but continue to lose ground to insurgents. Caleb Weiss, an expert on jihadist movements, predicts that at least one of these regimes may collapse, potentially leading to the emergence of a jihadist state in the region.
As extremist groups grow bolder, with ambitions to strike at the heart of power, Europe faces increasing pressure to respond, balancing the need for security with the challenges posed by rising migration. Meanwhile, the Sahel’s future remains uncertain, with the region poised on the brink of further instability and geopolitical realignment.