The European Union is bracing for another seismic shift in international climate policy as Donald Trump returns to the U.S. presidency, with plans to once again withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump’s previous exit from the agreement, coupled with his administration’s rollback of domestic environmental policies, disrupted global efforts to combat climate change. His reelection has revived concerns that such actions will significantly undermine international momentum at a critical time.
Trump’s climate stance was underscored in his victory speech, where he celebrated America’s fossil fuel wealth. “Bobby, leave the oil to me,” he remarked to environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., signaling a likely resurgence of policies favoring oil and gas over renewable energy.
Trump is planning to exit the Paris agreement and run with fossil fuels primarily natural gas and nuclear. pic.twitter.com/CEf34JKb37
— Stokdog (@stokdog) November 9, 2024
European leaders, already grappling with the enormity of closing the emissions gap to meet Paris goals, are now facing the challenge of filling the void left by a potential U.S. retreat. German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck emphasized the importance of unity, stating, “We benefit and win when we work together, and we hurt each other when we do not.”
Some global leaders remain steadfast in their climate commitments. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub, asserted, “Unlike 2016, the global community is prepared for this. I am confident we will weather the immediate impact, but I am worried about the long-term impact of this election.” Similarly, Christiana Figueres, a former United Nations climate chief, warned, “Standing with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a fast-moving world.”
Big consequences
Despite assurances of resilience, the implications of a renewed U.S. withdrawal are immense. Trump’s potential move to not only exit the Paris Agreement but also withdraw from the 1992 U.N. climate framework could jeopardize future climate summits, including key discussions on funding mechanisms for climate adaptation. As one senior European diplomat put it, “We don’t know what Trump’s going to do, so for now, we’re going to keep calm and carry on.”
The EU faces the dual burden of pushing its own green agenda while rallying other nations, particularly China, to maintain their commitments. European diplomats are reportedly working behind the scenes to ensure that the global coalition against climate change remains intact, even in the absence of U.S. leadership.
How should the U.S. leave the Paris Climate Accord?
The best option is to simply submit the Paris Agreement to the U.S. Senate because it really is a treaty and it should be treated as a treaty, says @IERenergy's @TomJPyle in @Restoration_roa. https://t.co/qOYJ96mkur
— Institute for Energy Research (@IERenergy) December 14, 2024
The move comes as the EU’s trade policies are coming increasingly under fire. In particular the EU’s deforestation directive has already soured relations with trading partners. At first, major exporters of palm oil, Malaysia and Indonesia, were angry about this. They found it unfair that the EU refuses to recognise their local deforestation standards, despite NGOs praising them for decreasing deforestation just last year. Especially since the UK does recognise these local standards.
Afterwards, Brazil and also the US joined the protest. It all caused to a one-year postponement of the deforestation directive, but the legislation is still not off the table. In November, the European Parliament passed an amendment that foresaw the creation of a new category of countries that pose “no risk” to deforestation, in addition to the existing three categories of “low”, “standard” and “high” risk. In a press release, Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) chief executive officer Belvinder Kaur Sron warned about this, noting that “a ‘no risk’ category in the four-tier classification system could provide a convenient off-ramp for legislators to exempt domestic companies from the legislation, which smacks of economic protectionism.”, adding “A two-tiered approach to regulation – protecting European companies while penalising their international trade partners – would send the wrong message to world, given that countries like Malaysia have worked so hard to comply with EUDR.”
The influence of the Mercosur agreement
A recently agreed trade deal between the EU and Latin American trade bloc Mercosur further complicate matters. This trade agreement, which still needs to be rubber-stamped by EU member states, foresees “better treatment” for Mercosur countries when it comes to assessing their compliance with the EU’s new deforestation rules, which means that non-Mercosur members that perform well on environmental indicators may be disadvantaged.
At the COP climate summit of the UN, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) launched its ‘Net-Zero Transition’ Study in collaboration with Swinburne University, which charts how Malaysia’s palm oil sector aims to reach net-zero emissions, underscoring Malaysia’s proactive stance on climate action. One of their initiatives is carbon sequestration, the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Carbon sequestration offers a complementary approach by removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in plants, soil, and other natural systems. In particular in the palm oil industry, the potential for carbon sequestration is significant.
However, despite such “carbon sequestration” in the palm oil industry or tree planting programmes – stimulated by the Malaysian Palm Oil Green Conservation Foundation (MPOGCF) – Malaysia would be disadvantaged as a result of the Mercusur deal, in comparison with the likes of Brazil, which have not been as successful to combat deforestation.