European gas storage levels have fallen below the 80% threshold, reigniting concerns in energy markets as an early Arctic blast drives up consumption across the continent. Despite a global supply glut and declining benchmark prices, analysts warn that gas geopolitics remain a dominant factor shaping Europe’s energy landscape.
According to energy researcher Francesco Sassi, gas consumption in Europe rose sharply last week as temperatures dropped well below the seasonal average. Stored gas—accumulated during the summer—became the primary tool for balancing the system. With another week of cold weather forecast, storage withdrawals are expected to continue at a rapid pace.
Updated figures show that EU-wide storage levels stood at 79.1% on November 22, down from 88.24% at the same time last year. The declines vary significantly by country:
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Germany: 71.15% (down from 92.84%)
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Netherlands: 68.91% (down from 77.2%)
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Italy: 89.97% (down from 93.15%)
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France: 88.64% (up from 84.25%)
🚨🇪🇺EU gas storage levels fall below the 80% threshold and again become the most discussed thing in energy markets.
Yes, gas geopolitics is still the most relevant variable, even in a supply glut.🧵 https://t.co/Z5AncDvlwh pic.twitter.com/w83yMNHrgz
— Francesco Sassi (@Frank_Stones) November 24, 2025
Despite these lower levels, the Dutch TTF gas benchmark fell below €30/MWh this week. Market participants attribute the price drop to abundant U.S. LNG cargoes in the Atlantic and a long-anticipated global supply surplus that is beginning to materialize. Some traders appear confident that Europe has entered a period of relative stability.
Sassi notes, however, that geopolitical dynamics continue to exert significant influence. Expectations of a potential peace agreement involving Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the European Union have contributed to the market’s sense of calm. Speculation has even emerged that a settlement could partially reopen Russian gas flows to Europe, further easing supply pressures.
EU natural gas inventories in % of full – EU at 79.10%
Germany at 71.15%, Italy at 89.97%, France at 88.64%, Netherlands at 68.91%, Austria at 80.75%, Spain at 83.60% https://t.co/WThmqixkTU pic.twitter.com/TtF5MpXQXn
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) November 24, 2025
Yet major uncertainties remain. Russian forces continue to advance in parts of Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate is unclear. The outcome of the winter heating season in both the EU and Ukraine could also shape political decision-making in unpredictable ways.
Analysts broadly agree that the era in which global gas trade functioned largely independently of geopolitics is over. Today, sourcing decisions and export destinations are closely tied not only to market prices but also to shifting political alliances.
Sassi’s latest analysis connects these trends to broader strategic developments, including a 28-point U.S. peace initiative that could reshape Europe’s energy architecture and Washington’s growing influence over Kyiv. Further discussion of these themes appears in his recent reports.
❗️Leak — 🇷🇺 gas ban regulation: Existing short-term contracts could be banned from April, not June, as negotiators seek to align with EU sanctions
The 4-column document published by @Contexte also suggests there’s no agreement on when to ban new or long-term gas contracts pic.twitter.com/wMCH7hVT7K
— Anna Hubert 🇪🇺 (@AnnaHbrt) November 25, 2025